It's been a few weeks since our last post (which is usually pretty good news...we definitely seem to post more often when the results aren't so great!). But our recent results have highlighted a rather typical trend that we figured we'd highlight:

The last 8 results are as follows: Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. Alternating wins and losses is normally a losing proposition if you're gambling...but it's a beautiful thing for PickLogic. Over those last 8 results (covering a period of two weeks), PickLogic is up about 1.2%.

Now, who would tout a 1.2% increase over two weeks? Well, we would. That essentially translates into a 2.5%+ monthly increase...and since we basically know that we can repeat those results over the long run, that translates into a 30% (or so) yearly positive trend. Yes, it's nearly sacrilegious to extrapolate a two week run to 52 weeks...but just check out our historical results -- other than the streak at the end of the recent basketball season, you'll see that the results ARE just that consistent.

Speaking of the infamous end-of-basketball streak (which essentially cost us 14% of our gains), the recovery is well underway. Baseball season has seen a very nice 4% increase in just over a month's time, and PickLogic -- again, despite the 14% "hit" -- is now back to nearly even for the year.

And we don't mind reminding you that you'd be VERY hard-pressed to find an investment option out there that's even close to even for the year:

• S&P 500: -4.4% YTD
  
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.93% YTD
  
• NASDAQ Composite Index: -6.18% YTD
  
• Nikkei 225: -10.22% YTD
  
• Housing/Real Estate market: (way down) YTD
  
• PickLogic: -0.7% YTD
  

We're currently forecasting an increase of between 16-20% for the year.

To celebrate our impending return to the positive side of the ledger for the year (we expect to be there before the end of May), we're going to offer all new subscribers a 2-for-1 deal: if you sign up by the end of May, we'll double your initial purchase (buy 1 month, get 1 month free; buy 1 year, get 1 year free, etc.). We'll also throw in a coveted PickLogic fitted cap!

Thanks to all our new members; we're excited that more and more people are seeing the light! And we'll try to make another post without waiting 3 weeks again (and not just because we're on a losing streak!).

Labels: losses, positive results, recent results, wins

After a win tonight (and even this win didn't come too easily), PickLogic is 5-12 over its last 17 picks...and its clients are down less than 1% as a result. (And if not for that overtime loss on March 2nd, in which we essentially wrote off a 1.3% loss, our clients would actually be ahead even with that record.)

Anyway, we just wanted to post real quickly to recognize all of the trial members who wrote in and requested an extra (free) month: thanks for sticking with us -- you'll see that over the next 30 days (and probably well before then), PickLogic will show a solid 3-4% return.

Keep the e-mails and comments coming!

Labels: return, trial members, wins

Boy, that was a tough loss tonight. (If you were following along, PickLogic had the Detroit/Atlanta game to go OVER 185, and through 3 quarters, they'd already scored 151 points...then scoring came to a halt, but the teams still only needed to hit 1 of 2 free throws with 8 seconds left to make the number...and both free throws were missed, the ensuing shot was missed, and no foul was called despite the close game.)

HOWEVER: we fully expected that a loss was coming soon enough. While that may seem strange to say (were we not confident in PickLogic's selection?), you have to remember that the PickLogic selections are NOT designed to win any one game, they're designed to NOT LOSE a bunch of games in a row. With that strategy in mind, the same often holds true for wins -- it's not very usual to go on extended winning streaks.

While we like to promote the fact that we've never lost more than 5 straight games, it's also true that we've also only won more than 5 straight games on 5 occasions in the past 3 years (we've had streaks of 12 wins, 8 wins, 7 wins, 7 wins, and 6 wins). Obviously, it's better to break the magic "5 in a row" threshhold with wins rather than losses, but we'll acknowledge that any system (other than PickLogic) that can lose 10 in a row is also more likely to win 10 in a row over time.

In fact, we hadn't had a win streak of 5+ games since last May...and since a 5-game win streak in July, we'd had 4 previous 4-game streaks...each of which lost trying to win the 5th in a row. (Honestly, we were surprised to win yesterday to make it 5 in a row on this current streak.)

So were we disappointed to lose tonight's game? Sure -- it's always nice to win. But it's a marathon, not a sprint, so these things are going to happen over the course of hundreds of selections...and the nature of PickLogic is to avoid streaks, so a loss (sooner rather than later) wasn't unexpected. Even in a tough fashion like tonight's game.

Labels: streaks, tough loss, wins