It HAS been a struggle...and really, that's an understatement.

We followed a beautiful first half of the NBA season (including 8 wins in a row, and 11 of 12 at one point during January) with an absolutely disastrous February: PickLogic won the first two in February, and then proceeded to lose 6 straight, followed by a win, and then 5 more in a row - basically mirroring the prosperous 11 of 12 we saw in January.

Now...we suppose this latest streak isn't THAT surprising. The system has been VERY streaky this year, and it's been designed to specifically NOT be streaky. Rarely do we have an 11-of-12 positive streak...so perhaps it goes to reason that we'd have a similar negative run.

At any rate, you might be surprised to know that we've lost very few members over the last month. Honestly, WE'RE surprised - even though many of our members understand that one month doesn't make or break a long-term investment, we usually see more members drop off during losing periods (and, conversely, more come on during the bountiful stretches).

We tell you this mainly to thank you for your continued membership. WE'RE sticking with PickLogic as individual investors, and still thoroughly expect 2010 to be a positive one - better, still than most other potential investment options.

Let's hope that we're through the rough times. We'll continue to make sure PickLogic generates solid picks moving forward...and if nothing else, this stretch should serve as a reminder that a loss here and there isn't a bad thing: a few wins here, a few losses there...as long as we don't have long streaks either way, that's what the system is supposed to do.

Thanks again for your support.

Labels: streaks

Well, it happened.

When all is said and done, PickLogic is designed to do one thing: avoid long losing streaks. Particularly those of the 6-game variety.

There's not too much use in analyzing what led to the streak (we started with two very close losses, by 1/2 point and 3 points, respectively, before four games that weren't all that close). The system picked an "over" trend that clearly didn't do its job.

We sincerely apologize to all of our members. Not that it makes your immediate losses easier to swallow, but please know that some of the largest accounts following PickLogic are held by our employees - we're feeling your pain as well.

However, you also need to know that this is a journey, a marathon. It's not about one-week or one-month gains. It's about steady gains over a long period of time. And even with what amounts to a nearly 20% setback, PickLogic is still up 28% since November of 2009.

While it's almost certainly true that we've all lost money in the short-term, we need to take a long-term view of things. What we've really lost here is the amount of time it'll take to make up the 20% lost - for example, from our high point of 47.2% on February 3rd, we were at 27.2% on August 20th of 2009 - basically, six months ago.

So we've lost six months. Not good - at all - but also not the end of the world. We were up 30% for the 2009 calendar year, and we certainly expect to turn a profit for the 2010 year. It won't be in the 35% range now, but we can still get to 15% or 20%, and consider 2010 a VERY successful year. Six months from now (in mid-August) we should be back up 10% for the year, as we were two weeks ago.

Based on all the comments you've sent in over the last few hours, it's heartening to know that the majority of you see the big picture. We also understand the few negative comments we've received, and again: we apologize for our performance, and we share your frustration. But PickLogic has worked too well for too long to jump ship at the first sign of trouble; we know that we'll still have a very productive year using a very proven system.

As far as what happens now: we will NOT be making a 7th-level pick in an attempt to recoup our losses. We'll take the short-term loss and start from a base-level, and move forward. While there's no pick for Thursday, we'll probably have a selection Friday or Saturday (for a rather low amount).

Thanks again for your support, and feel free to chime in with comments, both good and bad.

PickLogic

Labels: streaks

Just figured we'd make a quick post...see if we can't jinx ourselves. The PickLogic selections are certainly doing quite well lately, having won 4 in a row, 7 of 8, and 13 of 17.

As a direct result, our clients are already up 10.6% in 2009 so far - quite possibly the best investment return you can find anywhere these days. Our 18.3% mark for the NBA season is also very solid.

At any rate, after just two picks through the first week of March (both winners), there are a number of games that qualify for Sunday, March 8. With the vast majority of all selections coming out accurately lately, we decided to "spread the wealth" just a bit (and let's see if that completely invalidates our recent run of success!).

With that said...here are the games that qualified for Sunday:

-- Utah at Toronto, UNDER 208.5 (this is the actual pick)
-- Phoenix at San Antonio, OVER 219.5
-- New York at New Jersey, UNDER 220
-- Denver at Sacramento, UNDER 212

We'll check back Sunday evening to see how we did (but as long as we win the first one, we'll be happy).

Labels: baseball picks, Picklogic, streaks, wins

Well, it's now been just over a month since PickLogic made its first NBA pick of the 2008-2009 season. After a rough start (1-5 over the first six selections, with 3 losses followed by a win, and then 2 more losses), it's been smooth sailing since.

We've gone 11-3 over the past 14 selections, with 2 four-game winning streaks thrown in (including the one we're currently experiencing). Our overall 12-8 record has translated into some very nice profits for our clients: we're up nearly 6.2% in just over a month's time.

For those of you who have $10,000 accounts, that's a tidy $620 profit -- not bad for an investment, especially in these uncertain times (and for those with higher accounts, well, it probably seems like Christmas has come a little early!).

Now, do we expect to make selections at a 60% clip all year? Not necessarily. PickLogic isn't designed to win much more than half of its games: the main focus is on avoiding long losing streaks. Assuming we can continue to do that, our clients can expect to continue to see their portfolios rise throughout the year.

As many of you have been doing lately, feel free to ask questions by sending an e-mail to support@picklogic.com!

Labels: basketball picks, starting balance, streaks