We've gotten a lot of questions about the last few days of "no picks" for PickLogic, so we figured we'd just make a quick blog post about it.

Many of you are suggesting we're "waiting" for the "right" pick, given that we're on a two-game losing streak. That is definitely NOT the case; it just happens to be a situation where there truly aren't any games that have qualified since Tuesday using the PickLogic methodology.

(There's nothing we'd like more than to quickly get "off" a losing streak...so we'd just as soon have a pick immediately following any loss.)

If you've been following closely, you'll note one VERY specific constant in the PickLogic selections (and it seems so simple when it's written out): take a good team over a not-as-good team. Pretty basic, right? Obviously, there's much more to each selection (there are actually 14 separate statistical categories that are compared in each matchup), but the end result typically generates a game in which a team with a better record is selected over a team with a worse record.

We also won't take games that are too highly-favored (usually, we won't take a game that has odds of -160 or above) -- and that's the MAIN reason that there haven't been any selections the last few days. In the current slate of Major League Baseball games, it just happens to be the case that most of the matchups are "good team vs. bad team" (resulting in odds that are too high, like the Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati), or they're between teams that are too evenly matched (resulting in no "good team vs. bad team" games, like Minnesota vs. the LA Angels, or Oakland at Seattle).

So the bottom line is this: as SOON as there's a qualifying game, a selection will be made (regardless of whether we're on a winning streak or a losing streak).

Thanks for the comments; keep the questions coming!

Labels: baseball picks, odds, streaks

In Sunday night's blog posting, we outlined the 3 possible scenarios that would conclude PickLogic's NBA season...sadly, the first scenario (that Monday night's pick would be a winner) didn't come to pass, so here's what we're facing, given that there's NO PICK for Tuesday:

1) There's a pick on Wednesday, and it's a winner. Everyone's happy, we move onto baseball, and the results to date look like this: up 11.6% for the NBA season, up 9.12% for 2008, up 1.8% for April, and up 84.7% all-time.

2) There's a pick on Wednesday, and it's a loser. Everyone's rather un-happy, as we proceed to cut our losses and "start over" with the first baseball pick of the season a few days later. The results at that point would look like this: up 0.35% for the NBA season, down 5.2% for 2008, down 9.95% for April, and still up 70.4% all-time.

(Note that there's a VERY slight chance that there won't be a pick at all on Wednesday, but with a full slate of games scheduled, that seems unlikely.)

The wager for Wednesday's game will be rather large: essentially, it'll be 7.5% of your "starting balance", so please plan accordingly. (If you had just 15% of your starting balance in your account at the start of this losing streak, you'd still have enough to make this wager without having to re-deposit...so hopefully, everyone is going to be OK with this one.)

For those of you that have been PickLogic members for awhile, this is nothing new -- just ride out the streak, and keep your account moving forward. For our newer members (anyone who has joined in the last 3 months, and hasn't seen a streak like this) -- it's important to keep following the recommended wagers; the money-management system breaks down if you start looking at it (and acting) emotionally. Just stay with everything, and -- if history is any indication (and it is) -- we'll all come out ahead in the end.

Good luck to us all on Wednesday, and we'll post again then. (And don't hesitate to send questions/comments to support@picklogic.com.)

Labels: history, money management, streaks

Boy, that was a tough loss tonight. (If you were following along, PickLogic had the Detroit/Atlanta game to go OVER 185, and through 3 quarters, they'd already scored 151 points...then scoring came to a halt, but the teams still only needed to hit 1 of 2 free throws with 8 seconds left to make the number...and both free throws were missed, the ensuing shot was missed, and no foul was called despite the close game.)

HOWEVER: we fully expected that a loss was coming soon enough. While that may seem strange to say (were we not confident in PickLogic's selection?), you have to remember that the PickLogic selections are NOT designed to win any one game, they're designed to NOT LOSE a bunch of games in a row. With that strategy in mind, the same often holds true for wins -- it's not very usual to go on extended winning streaks.

While we like to promote the fact that we've never lost more than 5 straight games, it's also true that we've also only won more than 5 straight games on 5 occasions in the past 3 years (we've had streaks of 12 wins, 8 wins, 7 wins, 7 wins, and 6 wins). Obviously, it's better to break the magic "5 in a row" threshhold with wins rather than losses, but we'll acknowledge that any system (other than PickLogic) that can lose 10 in a row is also more likely to win 10 in a row over time.

In fact, we hadn't had a win streak of 5+ games since last May...and since a 5-game win streak in July, we'd had 4 previous 4-game streaks...each of which lost trying to win the 5th in a row. (Honestly, we were surprised to win yesterday to make it 5 in a row on this current streak.)

So were we disappointed to lose tonight's game? Sure -- it's always nice to win. But it's a marathon, not a sprint, so these things are going to happen over the course of hundreds of selections...and the nature of PickLogic is to avoid streaks, so a loss (sooner rather than later) wasn't unexpected. Even in a tough fashion like tonight's game.

Labels: streaks, tough loss, wins

Great comments on the original post...we can see that this is going to be a fun forum for PickLogic clients (and new members) to discuss/debate things.

Many of the comments were directed at the recent slate of losses experienced by PickLogic; we figured we'd take a second to clear everything up.

We've gone on record in the past stating that we've NEVER had a 6-game losing streak -- not in the 2 1/2 years we've been running the Web site, and not for the 17 prior years that PickLogic was being used to manage its clients' money (note: detailed records are not available for those 17 years, so the only thing we can verify for certain are the past 32 months, but it's still pretty impressive either way).

Semantics aside, that streak is still alive. It's true that PickLogic did lose 8 consecutive picks spanning the end of the baseball season and the beginning of the NBA season...but really, it was just two 4-game losing streaks back-to-back.

As you've no doubt realized by now, PickLogic often (but not always) raises its wager levels following a loss. After a win, the bet amount is usually returned to a "base level" (there are actually 11 different possible betting "tracks" that determine the amount wagered at the original bet level, and for each ensuing bet).

Since PickLogic selections are based on very specific trends (the concept being that PickLogic has identified trends that simply don't lose a bunch of games in a row), these trends don't carry over from sport to sport. As a result, after the 4-game losing streak that concluded the baseball season, we essentially "took our lumps" (and stopped increasing the bet) and started over for the basketball season at a base level bet, essentially declaring a loss for the month of October -- and it had been a promising month up to that point. It's true that we then happened to follow with another 4-game losing streak to start the basketball season, but the bet levels were manageable throughout the second streak since they started from a base level (they would have been MUCH higher had we actually been on losses 5, 6, 7 and 8!).

In typical fashion, PickLogic has rebounded from that streak with wins in 5 of the next 7 games, and we've already rebounded enough to show a positive return for the month (+1.2% for November). The results for the next 5 months are fairly predictable: over the rest of the basketball season, we're probably going to win about 56% of our selections, and as long as we don't have any 6-game (or more) losing streaks, our clients will make between 15-30% over that time period.

That said, we WILL -- it's almost certain -- have a 4-game losing streak (or two or three) during the NBA season, if not a 5-game streak or two. It happens, and you just need to continue to follow the recommendations to the letter, unemotionally.

Keep the comments coming! We're going to put up a post on PickLogic's history over the weekend.

Labels: November performance, recent results, streaks