Thursday, August 21, 2008
Three Straight Days of "No Picks". Why?
We've gotten a lot of questions about the last few days of "no picks" for PickLogic, so we figured we'd just make a quick blog post about it.
Many of you are suggesting we're "waiting" for the "right" pick, given that we're on a two-game losing streak. That is definitely NOT the case; it just happens to be a situation where there truly aren't any games that have qualified since Tuesday using the PickLogic methodology.
(There's nothing we'd like more than to quickly get "off" a losing streak...so we'd just as soon have a pick immediately following any loss.)
If you've been following closely, you'll note one VERY specific constant in the PickLogic selections (and it seems so simple when it's written out): take a good team over a not-as-good team. Pretty basic, right? Obviously, there's much more to each selection (there are actually 14 separate statistical categories that are compared in each matchup), but the end result typically generates a game in which a team with a better record is selected over a team with a worse record.
We also won't take games that are too highly-favored (usually, we won't take a game that has odds of -160 or above) -- and that's the MAIN reason that there haven't been any selections the last few days. In the current slate of Major League Baseball games, it just happens to be the case that most of the matchups are "good team vs. bad team" (resulting in odds that are too high, like the Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati), or they're between teams that are too evenly matched (resulting in no "good team vs. bad team" games, like Minnesota vs. the LA Angels, or Oakland at Seattle).
So the bottom line is this: as SOON as there's a qualifying game, a selection will be made (regardless of whether we're on a winning streak or a losing streak).
Thanks for the comments; keep the questions coming!
Many of you are suggesting we're "waiting" for the "right" pick, given that we're on a two-game losing streak. That is definitely NOT the case; it just happens to be a situation where there truly aren't any games that have qualified since Tuesday using the PickLogic methodology.
(There's nothing we'd like more than to quickly get "off" a losing streak...so we'd just as soon have a pick immediately following any loss.)
If you've been following closely, you'll note one VERY specific constant in the PickLogic selections (and it seems so simple when it's written out): take a good team over a not-as-good team. Pretty basic, right? Obviously, there's much more to each selection (there are actually 14 separate statistical categories that are compared in each matchup), but the end result typically generates a game in which a team with a better record is selected over a team with a worse record.
We also won't take games that are too highly-favored (usually, we won't take a game that has odds of -160 or above) -- and that's the MAIN reason that there haven't been any selections the last few days. In the current slate of Major League Baseball games, it just happens to be the case that most of the matchups are "good team vs. bad team" (resulting in odds that are too high, like the Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati), or they're between teams that are too evenly matched (resulting in no "good team vs. bad team" games, like Minnesota vs. the LA Angels, or Oakland at Seattle).
So the bottom line is this: as SOON as there's a qualifying game, a selection will be made (regardless of whether we're on a winning streak or a losing streak).
Thanks for the comments; keep the questions coming!
Labels: baseball picks, odds, streaks
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