In Sunday night's blog posting, we outlined the 3 possible scenarios that would conclude PickLogic's NBA season...sadly, the first scenario (that Monday night's pick would be a winner) didn't come to pass, so here's what we're facing, given that there's NO PICK for Tuesday:

1) There's a pick on Wednesday, and it's a winner. Everyone's happy, we move onto baseball, and the results to date look like this: up 11.6% for the NBA season, up 9.12% for 2008, up 1.8% for April, and up 84.7% all-time.

2) There's a pick on Wednesday, and it's a loser. Everyone's rather un-happy, as we proceed to cut our losses and "start over" with the first baseball pick of the season a few days later. The results at that point would look like this: up 0.35% for the NBA season, down 5.2% for 2008, down 9.95% for April, and still up 70.4% all-time.

(Note that there's a VERY slight chance that there won't be a pick at all on Wednesday, but with a full slate of games scheduled, that seems unlikely.)

The wager for Wednesday's game will be rather large: essentially, it'll be 7.5% of your "starting balance", so please plan accordingly. (If you had just 15% of your starting balance in your account at the start of this losing streak, you'd still have enough to make this wager without having to re-deposit...so hopefully, everyone is going to be OK with this one.)

For those of you that have been PickLogic members for awhile, this is nothing new -- just ride out the streak, and keep your account moving forward. For our newer members (anyone who has joined in the last 3 months, and hasn't seen a streak like this) -- it's important to keep following the recommended wagers; the money-management system breaks down if you start looking at it (and acting) emotionally. Just stay with everything, and -- if history is any indication (and it is) -- we'll all come out ahead in the end.

Good luck to us all on Wednesday, and we'll post again then. (And don't hesitate to send questions/comments to support@picklogic.com.)

Labels: history, money management, streaks

Yes, it's true...there's more to say when we're losing than when PickLogic is winning regularly. In other words: less blog posts = better results. We can live with not posting very often! (But we'll still try to chime in regularly, even during nice, calm, portfolio-increasing times such as this past week.)

PickLogic has followed a 4-12 run with 4 straight wins. So despite starting the month of March with losses in 6 out of 7 selections, the calendar month has already climbed back to record a a positive return (if still slight). Assuming we don't run into any lengthy streaks for the rest of the month, we'll celebrate our 3-year anniversary with a positive return in 34 of the 36 months that PickLogic.com has been in existence. Not too bad!

See all of our results over the past three years here.

In nearly three years, we've won 259 games and lost 223, for a win-loss percentage of 53.73%. If you were betting, say, $100 on each game we've ever selected, you'd be up $1,245 in three years (12.45%). Hardly worth the time and effort.

But our clients who have been with us from the beginning, following the recommended wagers each day, are up 82% as of today (or $8,200 in the example above). (And note that while our average client has a "starting balance" of around $25,000, it's absolutely the case that we have many clients who HAVE been here for the entire 3 years, with starting balances of $100,000 or more, who are up $82,000 or more over that time.)

The nice thing, too, is that our history suggests that our performance will continue at the same rate or better than in the past:

-- 2005 was up 22%
-- 2006 was up 19%
-- 2007 was up over 34.5%

In 2008 so far, we're up 6.4%, or more than 2%/month (suggesting an end-2008 number in the 25%-30% range).

If you're new to PickLogic, we invite you to look at the numbers -- everything is out there to see, nothing is hidden. If you're a client, sorry for telling you things you already know!

And if you're STILL reading this post, we'll throw in a special "thanks" for your time and attention:

-- New members (who purchase any PickLogic plan before the end of March): we'll send you a free, fitted PickLogic baseball cap.
-- Existing members: on your next renewal of 3 months or more (even if you were already planning on renewing), we'll send you the same cap.

In both cases, just shoot us a note telling us you saw this Blog post, and we'll get your hat sent right out.

Here's to less posts in the near future!

Labels: free hat, history, recent results

Lost of people ask us about the specific history of PickLogic...and yes, it DID exist before we started the Web site in April of 2005.

Before PickLogic.com launched, the system was being used to manage people's money for them (as in, people sent in their money to be managed, like a traditional investment). Everything was done in cash: located in Las Vegas, millions of dollars (literally) from many different clients was pooled into one large fund, and one bet was made for the entire fund each day (or whenever there was a pick).

This allowed a significant amount of flexibility: if the odds changed in a game at the last moment, or another game became more attractive two hours before game time, no one had to be told to change a selection: the decision was coming from a central source, and the same source was then actually walking down to the casino sportsbook and making the bet. Additionally, if a large bet had to be made (as we know is inevitable at times), no one's emotions came into play ("Should I make that large of a bet?") -- the bet was made, and no customer service e-mails or phone calls were handled. In fact, the investors (who had their money as part of the fund) didn't even know what the picks were each day. Each month, they were simply told how much money they had made.

Despite some of the conveniences that came from managing the funds internally, we believe that the new model (in which our clients manage their own funds, and occasionally have to make their own decisions as to whether to follow our advice or not) is a much better one. There were limits to how much money could be physically managed (at least, before online sportsbooks became the norm). We love the fact that PickLogic is now benefitting thousands of people, rather than just a few select individuals. And having to make a selection by 11pm Pacific the night before (and then sticking to it, no matter what) has created a structure in which the system has thrived:

Since the PickLogic.com Web site launched in April of 2005, the clients that have been with us since then have made 75% on their original investment, including 34% in 2007 alone.

On a side note: one of the reasons we wanted to explain the history of the company to you is that we're not fans of people or companies that are selling "get rich quick" ideas. Why are these people selling their ideas or their systems? If they're so good, why not just keep them to yourself and use them to make all the money you'll need?

One of the only drawbacks to being a PickLogic member is that there is, in fact, a limit to how much money one person or entity can make. You just can't make $200,000 bets very easily. It made much more sense, as a business proposition, to "let others in" on PickLogic...and it's worked out well so far. (But you better believe that every PickLogic team member is still investing on their own using PickLogic as well.)

At any rate, thanks for being a part of PickLogic as we continue to grow. Your feedback will help us shape things as we move forward!

Labels: history, results