Well, it happened.

When all is said and done, PickLogic is designed to do one thing: avoid long losing streaks. Particularly those of the 6-game variety.

There's not too much use in analyzing what led to the streak (we started with two very close losses, by 1/2 point and 3 points, respectively, before four games that weren't all that close). The system picked an "over" trend that clearly didn't do its job.

We sincerely apologize to all of our members. Not that it makes your immediate losses easier to swallow, but please know that some of the largest accounts following PickLogic are held by our employees - we're feeling your pain as well.

However, you also need to know that this is a journey, a marathon. It's not about one-week or one-month gains. It's about steady gains over a long period of time. And even with what amounts to a nearly 20% setback, PickLogic is still up 28% since November of 2009.

While it's almost certainly true that we've all lost money in the short-term, we need to take a long-term view of things. What we've really lost here is the amount of time it'll take to make up the 20% lost - for example, from our high point of 47.2% on February 3rd, we were at 27.2% on August 20th of 2009 - basically, six months ago.

So we've lost six months. Not good - at all - but also not the end of the world. We were up 30% for the 2009 calendar year, and we certainly expect to turn a profit for the 2010 year. It won't be in the 35% range now, but we can still get to 15% or 20%, and consider 2010 a VERY successful year. Six months from now (in mid-August) we should be back up 10% for the year, as we were two weeks ago.

Based on all the comments you've sent in over the last few hours, it's heartening to know that the majority of you see the big picture. We also understand the few negative comments we've received, and again: we apologize for our performance, and we share your frustration. But PickLogic has worked too well for too long to jump ship at the first sign of trouble; we know that we'll still have a very productive year using a very proven system.

As far as what happens now: we will NOT be making a 7th-level pick in an attempt to recoup our losses. We'll take the short-term loss and start from a base-level, and move forward. While there's no pick for Thursday, we'll probably have a selection Friday or Saturday (for a rather low amount).

Thanks again for your support, and feel free to chime in with comments, both good and bad.

PickLogic

Labels: streaks