Thursday, April 24, 2008

 

Baseball Season is Well Underway...

PickLogic is 5 picks into baseball season -- with a 3-2 record so far, we're already ahead 1.2% in the first week of selections. We've gotten a number of questions over the past few days about certain nuances of our baseball selections, so we thought we'd list a few quick things to note when it comes to PickLogic's baseball picks:

1) Our all-time baseball record is 156-116, a win-loss percentage a little over 57%. You can expect that to continue through the season; the methodology used to select baseball picks has proven to be quite consistent.

2) You'll also note that it won't be unusual for PickLogic to "stick" with a team if it loses once (although rarely will it take the same team three times in a row). Remember that PickLogic's methodology is designed to avoid losing streaks, and not necessarily win any one particular game. The system often says something like "Arizona should win tonight, but if it doesn't, it's not going to lose twice in a row against the Dodgers" (as was the case in this most recent set of picks). Of course, every loss doesn't mean we stick to the same team for the next game, but you'll see it happen quite a few times throughout the baseball season.

3) As we mentioned in a previous post, baseball is different from basketball in that the odds change from game to game -- it's not always a straight -110 at which a pick is made (a few games ago, the selection was for a game at -145; Thursday's game was at +110). The main reason to point this out is that the gains/losses are a little more sporadic -- sometimes, a 1-2 record over three games will result in a gain of .3% or .5%, and other times it'll mean a loss of .4% or a break-even result, depending on the odds in the winning selection. (Whereas in basketball, a 1-2 record always meant a gain of some sort.) Just something to keep in mind.

We expect a net gain of between 12-20% over the course of the baseball season...so set your starting balance accordingly!

(And remember: you still have until May 17 to receive double the months you add to your subscription! Also, thanks to everyone who is trying out PickLogic for the first month of baseball -- don't hesitate to ask any questions!)

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Comments :
By the way...the selection for Friday is "Boston to win at Tampa Bay, -121", but it was a near-deadlock among 3 picks as to which one to select (Boston narrowly made the cut).

The other two picks, if you're interested:

-- Philadelphia to win at Pittsburgh, -126
-- Chicago to win at Washington, -129

To follow on from the comment in the blog posting...it's highly likely that either of those teams loses BOTH of the next two games (but at the same time, don't just assume that if Boston loses, they're definitely going to be the next pick...as we said, it doesn't ALWAYS work that way).
 
your system is not so good now
 
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