It's always interesting to look at our past performance as an indicator of what to expect in the future, and the All-Star Break of the NBA gives us a chance to examine the first half of the basketball season (which has spanned 3 1/2 months so far):

-- November: 5-6 record, +1.22%. After starting with 4 losses to begin the season, we recovered nicely.
-- December: 8-8, +1.2%. Another uneven month, with a 3-game losing streak and a 4-game winning streak. We also had the beginning of a 5-game losing streak to end the year (but still had a winning month).
-- January: 6-8, +4.15%. Really, January's numbers are artificially high, and December's are artificially low (with January being the beneficiary of the month in which a December losing streak was ended). Still nice to have 2 losing streaks in the month and come out positive.
-- February (so far): 4-2, break-even.

This has actually been one of our more inconsistent seasons so far, and still, the results have been very positive: +6.58% at the moment, and a +13% NBA season wouldn't be something to throw away.

What's the point? Well, really just to highlight that sports investing is an art, not a science. You can't possibly win every game, nor can you expect to win much more than half of the games, even with the best system. Sports betting has made far more people poorer than richer -- we're probably as successful as anyone out there, and yet we're 23-24 through the first half of the NBA season. Many sports gamblers would be broke by now: at the very least, given the 10% "juice", if you were betting $100/game and went 23-24, you'd be down $340 at this point. We find outselves up over 6.5% despite a sub-.500 record.

As we head into the second half of the season (and a four-day break from selections), there IS a pick for tonight; our members (and trial members) would have just received it in their e-mail (it's the "OVER" the total of 224.5 in the Warriors/Jazz matchup on Tuesday evening). You'll note that the betting level has been somewhat reduced from its normal ascension on a two-game losing streak, given the reluctance of PickLogic to assume that trends will continue perfectly through a four-day hiatus.

Enjoy the last 8 weeks of the NBA season!

Labels: investing, methodology, performance, recent results