We've had a nice little run here over the past 2+ weeks, going 9-2 (after the win Saturday night) and adding a tidy 3.5% to our clients' portfolios over that time. It's always nice when a four-game winning streak is immediately followed by another four-game winning streak; gains are made quickly and painlessly!

Since our loss at the end of basketball season -- and even with some minor backward steps (at times) over the first three months of baseball season -- PickLogic is up 6%, and we're back into the positive numbers for the year (we're still up less than 1%...but we're ahead, which is MUCH more than you can say for nearly every other investment out there).

To celebrate the official midway point of the baseball season (this week's All-Star break), we're going to do something that's rather unprecedented: a MONEY-BACK Guarantee for all of our clients (both new AND current).

We're so certain that PickLogic will be up at least 10% by year's end, that we will refund all subscription dues paid from July 1 through the end of the year if we don't hit the 10% number by December 31, 2008.

To clarify: As of today, July 12, we're currently ahead 0.77% for the calendar year. If that number (and you can track it daily on our results page) doesn't reach at least 10.00% by the last day of the year, any subscription fees that you've paid between July 1 and December 31 will be refunded to you on January 1, 2009.

For our current clients, of course, this is just a no-strings-attached benefit -- they're already paying their regular dues, and this is just an opportunity for a refund come year's end (which they know they probably won't get...but we DID go through the first 6 months of the year without a profit, so who knows?).

For our new clients, this should remove any risk involved in becoming a paying member -- what do you have to lose? Either you're up 10% by year's end, or you get any subscription fees you've paid by that time refunded to you. New clients have until August 12th (one month from today) to become a paying member, and to qualify for the guarantee. (And we'll still send you a PickLogic hat if you sign up by then as well.)

So that's the deal. We promise that we won't change our methodology (in either the way games are selected, or with the amounts they're bet) -- we're prepared to live with this offer regardless of the outcome. We've checked with our accountants, and (while they're not happy), we'll be ready with refunds should we not hit the magic 10% number.

Don't hesitate to ask questions (support@picklogic.com) for clarification...and here's to hitting the 10% number by the end of October! (Our accountants will like to hear that.)

Hey, everyone...sorry it's been awhile since we've posted. And it's only a coincidence that we happen to be posting during our first losing streak in a month (currently 3 games)...amazingly, we're not even going to mention it! (Well, we're not going to mention it AGAIN.)

While one clear pick emerged for Tuesday(listed below), we thought we'd post a note just to point out an absolute rarity: a whopping EIGHT games actually qualified for consideration. Not that we're saying all of them will win, mind you, but it's certainly likely that they'll go 5-3 or so. (Is that valuable? Not to non-gamblers following PickLogic, but maybe it is for you.) At any rate, it was a rare enough occurrence (we normally get one or two games qualifying per day, at the most) that we thought we'd post them for entertainment purposes only. (Home teams in CAPS)

-- PITTSBURGH over Washington, -160
-- St. Louis over CINCINNATI, +120
-- Philadelphia over FLORIDA, -120 (very strong)
-- CHICAGO CUBS over Atlanta, -150 (very strong)
-- San Francisco over COLORADO, +160
-- Chicago White Sox over DETROIT, -122 (This is the pick)
-- Texas over KANSAS CITY, -110
-- LA ANGELS over Tampa Bay, -115

Again, why are we posting them? Just because you've asked us to. As far as we're concerned, there's only one game on the board that matters...so, go White Sox. We'll comment on the results Tuesday evening.

Labels: Picks

It's been a few weeks since our last post (which is usually pretty good news...we definitely seem to post more often when the results aren't so great!). But our recent results have highlighted a rather typical trend that we figured we'd highlight:

The last 8 results are as follows: Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. Alternating wins and losses is normally a losing proposition if you're gambling...but it's a beautiful thing for PickLogic. Over those last 8 results (covering a period of two weeks), PickLogic is up about 1.2%.

Now, who would tout a 1.2% increase over two weeks? Well, we would. That essentially translates into a 2.5%+ monthly increase...and since we basically know that we can repeat those results over the long run, that translates into a 30% (or so) yearly positive trend. Yes, it's nearly sacrilegious to extrapolate a two week run to 52 weeks...but just check out our historical results -- other than the streak at the end of the recent basketball season, you'll see that the results ARE just that consistent.

Speaking of the infamous end-of-basketball streak (which essentially cost us 14% of our gains), the recovery is well underway. Baseball season has seen a very nice 4% increase in just over a month's time, and PickLogic -- again, despite the 14% "hit" -- is now back to nearly even for the year.

And we don't mind reminding you that you'd be VERY hard-pressed to find an investment option out there that's even close to even for the year:

• S&P 500: -4.4% YTD
  
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.93% YTD
  
• NASDAQ Composite Index: -6.18% YTD
  
• Nikkei 225: -10.22% YTD
  
• Housing/Real Estate market: (way down) YTD
  
• PickLogic: -0.7% YTD
  

We're currently forecasting an increase of between 16-20% for the year.

To celebrate our impending return to the positive side of the ledger for the year (we expect to be there before the end of May), we're going to offer all new subscribers a 2-for-1 deal: if you sign up by the end of May, we'll double your initial purchase (buy 1 month, get 1 month free; buy 1 year, get 1 year free, etc.). We'll also throw in a coveted PickLogic fitted cap!

Thanks to all our new members; we're excited that more and more people are seeing the light! And we'll try to make another post without waiting 3 weeks again (and not just because we're on a losing streak!).

Labels: losses, positive results, recent results, wins

PickLogic's first baseball pick this year came on April 19, and we went 5-4 in April (plus a win on the first day of May) for a nice 2% gain in under 2 weeks. It's likely that these first 9 picks will be typical of our performance throughout the rest of baseball season: two wins, followed by two losses, a win, two more losses, and now three straight wins.

(Think 2% doesn't sound like much? Even our $10,000 clients (with declared $10K "starting balances"), are up $200 in less than two weeks, and they've never had more than $411 (let alone $10,000) at risk at any one point, and most of the time much less.)

You can expect these little "mini-streaks" all year -- we probably (ideally) won't win or lose more than 4 in a row for the next 5 months. So just be sure you're following PickLogic's recommendations EXACTLY, and we'll all be quite happy come September.

In other words...invest, don't gamble! Sports betting is dangerous; we prefer lower-risk activities. That said (and since many of you ask repeatedly), we thought we'd mention that the PickLogic system actually likes 3 games for Friday, May 2. The actual pick is Florida over San Diego at a line of -130...but these other two games were also rated very highly:

-- Arizona over New York Mets, -130
-- Oakland over Texas, -145

(And if you really like a long shot, the system also liked Kansas City over Cleveland, at a line of +180.)

At any rate, in the next few days, we'll post a blog entry that discusses the historical (and recent) performance of PickLogic vs. other investment options.

Labels: baseball betting, investing, sports betting

PickLogic is 5 picks into baseball season -- with a 3-2 record so far, we're already ahead 1.2% in the first week of selections. We've gotten a number of questions over the past few days about certain nuances of our baseball selections, so we thought we'd list a few quick things to note when it comes to PickLogic's baseball picks:

1) Our all-time baseball record is 156-116, a win-loss percentage a little over 57%. You can expect that to continue through the season; the methodology used to select baseball picks has proven to be quite consistent.

2) You'll also note that it won't be unusual for PickLogic to "stick" with a team if it loses once (although rarely will it take the same team three times in a row). Remember that PickLogic's methodology is designed to avoid losing streaks, and not necessarily win any one particular game. The system often says something like "Arizona should win tonight, but if it doesn't, it's not going to lose twice in a row against the Dodgers" (as was the case in this most recent set of picks). Of course, every loss doesn't mean we stick to the same team for the next game, but you'll see it happen quite a few times throughout the baseball season.

3) As we mentioned in a previous post, baseball is different from basketball in that the odds change from game to game -- it's not always a straight -110 at which a pick is made (a few games ago, the selection was for a game at -145; Thursday's game was at +110). The main reason to point this out is that the gains/losses are a little more sporadic -- sometimes, a 1-2 record over three games will result in a gain of .3% or .5%, and other times it'll mean a loss of .4% or a break-even result, depending on the odds in the winning selection. (Whereas in basketball, a 1-2 record always meant a gain of some sort.) Just something to keep in mind.

We expect a net gain of between 12-20% over the course of the baseball season...so set your starting balance accordingly!

(And remember: you still have until May 17 to receive double the months you add to your subscription! Also, thanks to everyone who is trying out PickLogic for the first month of baseball -- don't hesitate to ask any questions!)

Labels: baseball betting, basketball picks, sports betting

(Or an alternative title for this posting could have been: "PickLogic Still Out-Performing the NASDAQ and DJIA")

NOTE: Read to the end of this blog posting for an important announcement concerning your PickLogic account.

Those of you that have been following PickLogic (and this blog) know that we had the least-desirable scenario come to fruition on Tuesday night, losing our 5th-straight game to finish out the NBA season. Without any further regular season games with which to continue the money-management system, PickLogic is going to have to take a rather significant loss and move on to baseball (we don't carry losing streaks from sport-to-sport, and always start new seasons at base-level wagers).

Without question, this is the biggest step backwards in our 3-year history...but it's far from disastrous. (We end up taking a 14.85% loss on this series of games.) The bottom line is that the numbers look like this:

• NBA 2007-2008 season: -2.79%
  
• 2008 year-to-date: -5.21%
  
• April 2008, so far: -12.56%
  

Of course, if you go to the PickLogic Results page, you'll also see the following historical figures:

• NBA 2006-2007: +21.50%
  
• NBA 2005-2006: +8.69%
  
• 2007 yearly total: +34.57%
  
• All-time total (2005-2008): +70.4%
  

It's certainly true that a win in Tuesday's game (and it even went to overtime, giving us every possible opportunity for the game to go "OVER") would have put us at our highest historical levels ever, and put PickLogic's 2008 YTD number at nearly +10% through just 3 1/2 months. It's unfortunate that we don't have more NBA games with which we can recover these losses...but really, it's all part of an investment method that has performed quite well over the years, and will continue to perform well moving forward.

"Down 5.2% on the year" is actually still ahead of the NASDAQ (down 9% YTD) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (down 10.3% YTD).

To put it in further perspective, here's a note we just received from Marcus, one of our more active clients:

"Keep your heads up, gents! Yes, I'm down 5% on the year, but in the last 12 months I'm still up more than 15%, even with this loss. And since I have a $200K account, that's +$30K for me -- while this loss hurts, as investors, everyone needs to see the big picture and realize it's all part of solid long-term plan. Feel free to pass my story on to others, and tell them not to panic!"

Thanks, Marcus -- we just did!

So we move on to baseball. Our first pick will likely be on Friday or Saturday (those of you that have told us that you need time to refresh your cash reserves have a few days to do so).

For our newer PickLogic clients, you can look at our past three baseball seasons for some idea of what to expect:

• MLB 2007: +16.6%
  
• MLB 2006: +8.7%
  
• MLB 2005: +17.66%
  

Keep in mind that baseball selections (usually 4-6/week) work slightly different than basketball: while nearly all basketball picks are made at lines of -110, baseball picks (in which we select the winner of the game, and not the total runs scored) can range from +150 to -190 or so. The premise is the same: if the suggested wager is $50, you're risking $50 to win "X", and not "X" to win $50.

(So if the pick is "take the Florida Marlins to defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers at a money line of -135 for $50", you're wagering $50 to win $37; if the line was +120 instead of -135, you'd be wagering $50 to win $60.)

And finally...for those of you that have read this far, here's the special offer we were talking about:

For all "free trial" members: We're extending your account an extra 30 days. We want you to see how baseball works, and recognize that our recent performance may not be overly-inspiring.

For all existing subscribers: As our way of saying "thank you" for sticking with us, if your account automatically renews in the next 30 days (from now until May 17), we'll double the time purchased. (In other words...renew for one month, get one more month added to your account. Renew for 3 months, get 3 months added. Renew for a year, get a year for free!) If you want to change your subscription plan to take advantage of this offer, just let us know.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them to support@picklogic.com (or make a reply to this blog posting). Thanks again for all of your support!

In Sunday night's blog posting, we outlined the 3 possible scenarios that would conclude PickLogic's NBA season...sadly, the first scenario (that Monday night's pick would be a winner) didn't come to pass, so here's what we're facing, given that there's NO PICK for Tuesday:

1) There's a pick on Wednesday, and it's a winner. Everyone's happy, we move onto baseball, and the results to date look like this: up 11.6% for the NBA season, up 9.12% for 2008, up 1.8% for April, and up 84.7% all-time.

2) There's a pick on Wednesday, and it's a loser. Everyone's rather un-happy, as we proceed to cut our losses and "start over" with the first baseball pick of the season a few days later. The results at that point would look like this: up 0.35% for the NBA season, down 5.2% for 2008, down 9.95% for April, and still up 70.4% all-time.

(Note that there's a VERY slight chance that there won't be a pick at all on Wednesday, but with a full slate of games scheduled, that seems unlikely.)

The wager for Wednesday's game will be rather large: essentially, it'll be 7.5% of your "starting balance", so please plan accordingly. (If you had just 15% of your starting balance in your account at the start of this losing streak, you'd still have enough to make this wager without having to re-deposit...so hopefully, everyone is going to be OK with this one.)

For those of you that have been PickLogic members for awhile, this is nothing new -- just ride out the streak, and keep your account moving forward. For our newer members (anyone who has joined in the last 3 months, and hasn't seen a streak like this) -- it's important to keep following the recommended wagers; the money-management system breaks down if you start looking at it (and acting) emotionally. Just stay with everything, and -- if history is any indication (and it is) -- we'll all come out ahead in the end.

Good luck to us all on Wednesday, and we'll post again then. (And don't hesitate to send questions/comments to support@picklogic.com.)

Labels: history, money management, streaks