Well, when you have as bad a month as we did in February, it's very easy to talk about turning the ship around; all that really counts are results.

And March was all about results: we really had a great month, going 15-5, and recovering nearly 8% of our losses from our low point on March 2nd (we actually went 15-3 from March 3 until the end of the month).

Now basketball is coming to an end (we'll probably just pick another game or two in the upcoming week), and then we'll move right into baseball. The transition from basketball to baseball is seamless, since the two seasons overlap nicely - the Major League Baseball season will have had about two weeks to gather stats before we start picking games.

For our newer clients who haven't been with us during baseball season, it's certainly a different beast: instead of picking over/unders (as we do for the NBA), PickLogic selects winners in baseball, and the "odds" aren't always at -110 - in fact, they rarely are. We'll usually take games anywhere from -150 all the way to +120, but the method remains the same: PickLogic will tell you what to RISK (not what to win), and the odds will only have an effect on the net profits.

Once the season starts, we'll make another blog post that outlines some of methods that PickLogic uses to generate baseball selections.

Thanks, as usual, for your support - we look forward to a profitable baseball season!

Labels: 2010 MLB, 2010 NBA, baseball betting, baseball picks

It HAS been a struggle...and really, that's an understatement.

We followed a beautiful first half of the NBA season (including 8 wins in a row, and 11 of 12 at one point during January) with an absolutely disastrous February: PickLogic won the first two in February, and then proceeded to lose 6 straight, followed by a win, and then 5 more in a row - basically mirroring the prosperous 11 of 12 we saw in January.

Now...we suppose this latest streak isn't THAT surprising. The system has been VERY streaky this year, and it's been designed to specifically NOT be streaky. Rarely do we have an 11-of-12 positive streak...so perhaps it goes to reason that we'd have a similar negative run.

At any rate, you might be surprised to know that we've lost very few members over the last month. Honestly, WE'RE surprised - even though many of our members understand that one month doesn't make or break a long-term investment, we usually see more members drop off during losing periods (and, conversely, more come on during the bountiful stretches).

We tell you this mainly to thank you for your continued membership. WE'RE sticking with PickLogic as individual investors, and still thoroughly expect 2010 to be a positive one - better, still than most other potential investment options.

Let's hope that we're through the rough times. We'll continue to make sure PickLogic generates solid picks moving forward...and if nothing else, this stretch should serve as a reminder that a loss here and there isn't a bad thing: a few wins here, a few losses there...as long as we don't have long streaks either way, that's what the system is supposed to do.

Thanks again for your support.

Labels: streaks

Well, it happened.

When all is said and done, PickLogic is designed to do one thing: avoid long losing streaks. Particularly those of the 6-game variety.

There's not too much use in analyzing what led to the streak (we started with two very close losses, by 1/2 point and 3 points, respectively, before four games that weren't all that close). The system picked an "over" trend that clearly didn't do its job.

We sincerely apologize to all of our members. Not that it makes your immediate losses easier to swallow, but please know that some of the largest accounts following PickLogic are held by our employees - we're feeling your pain as well.

However, you also need to know that this is a journey, a marathon. It's not about one-week or one-month gains. It's about steady gains over a long period of time. And even with what amounts to a nearly 20% setback, PickLogic is still up 28% since November of 2009.

While it's almost certainly true that we've all lost money in the short-term, we need to take a long-term view of things. What we've really lost here is the amount of time it'll take to make up the 20% lost - for example, from our high point of 47.2% on February 3rd, we were at 27.2% on August 20th of 2009 - basically, six months ago.

So we've lost six months. Not good - at all - but also not the end of the world. We were up 30% for the 2009 calendar year, and we certainly expect to turn a profit for the 2010 year. It won't be in the 35% range now, but we can still get to 15% or 20%, and consider 2010 a VERY successful year. Six months from now (in mid-August) we should be back up 10% for the year, as we were two weeks ago.

Based on all the comments you've sent in over the last few hours, it's heartening to know that the majority of you see the big picture. We also understand the few negative comments we've received, and again: we apologize for our performance, and we share your frustration. But PickLogic has worked too well for too long to jump ship at the first sign of trouble; we know that we'll still have a very productive year using a very proven system.

As far as what happens now: we will NOT be making a 7th-level pick in an attempt to recoup our losses. We'll take the short-term loss and start from a base-level, and move forward. While there's no pick for Thursday, we'll probably have a selection Friday or Saturday (for a rather low amount).

Thanks again for your support, and feel free to chime in with comments, both good and bad.

PickLogic

Labels: streaks

You may have noticed that we don't usually make a big deal out of our winning streaks - it's true that we generally have more winners than losers, but PickLogic isn't about long winning streaks.

It's about avoiding long losing streaks.

That's it. That's the whole focus of PickLogic (well, that, combined with appropriate, intelligent, disciplined money management). The PickLogic system is built around avoiding lengthy losing streaks, and it does an excellent job at it (if we say so ourselves...and the results certainly seem to make that point quite clearly).

Really, PickLogic just needs to win about half its games to turn a very tidy profit month after month, year after year. To illustrate the point, PickLogic had exactly 90 wins and 90 losses in the 2009 calendar year, and made just over 30%.

PickLogic then lost its first game of 2010...and has only lost once since, over the course of the last 12 selections. An 11-1 streak makes the "up" meter go up much more quickly...but we know our results won't always be quite this good - hence the relatively low-key "celebration" from our side.

As mentioned, PickLogic actually doesn't pick each game thinking it's going to necessarily win that game.

After each win, the system "resets", and the next pick is made on a trend - not on a particular game. For example: After tonight's win, PickLogic will find another trend (say, an "Under" trend) that it likes, and make a pick for the first game that qualifies for that trend. What the system is saying, in effect, is "It's quite possible that this next game won't win, but this specific trend won't lose 5 or 6 times in a row."

The resulting wager amount reflects the system's confidence in that statement.

Hopefully that gives you a little more insight into some of the game theory behind PickLogic's selections. But it's true - the system is very, very "hot" right now (including a last-second cover of the "OVER" in tonight's game). There are often multiple games that qualify each day, and PickLogic only selects the best one...but the fact is, MOST of the selections are winning right now.

We'll try to post more over the coming days when there ARE a number of qualifying selections; Tuesday, January 26th only has one game (and it's the official PickLogic selection):

- Phoenix vs. Charlotte, UNDER 210

At any rate, it's been a good run. Don't expect it to last forever! (We don't.)

But feel free to chime in with comments or questions...we're always listening.

PickLogic.com

Goals are funny things; the power of setting goals, writing them down, and declaring them to the world is rather amazing. PickLogic highly encourages its members to write down their own goals as 2010 begins. Look at them regularly, and you'll be amazed at how they can affect your reality.

Take PickLogic, for example. At the beginning of 2009, we distinctly set a goal of a +30% year. It wasn't conservative or agressive; we felt it was something we should be able to hit given our past performance, but it would require our normal due diligence, discipline and focus.

So what happens? Come last December (the 22nd, to be exact), we're cruising right along, well above our 30% goal, right around +34% for the year. And then we have three losses in a row to finish the year...and the 4% loss gives us a 30.04% increase for 2009.

If you had a $10,000 account, your profit was $3,004 for the year: that's about as close as you can get to 30% on the year.

So this year, we're going to put a new goal out there: PickLogic accounts will gain 35% in 2010. This isn't a prediction, it's our goal. We expect to hit it, we'll post it around our offices, and our intention will make it a reality.

(We'll also set a goal of trying to make more blog posts this year!)

Once again, thanks for being a PickLogic member; here's to a great 2010 for us all!

Labels: 2010 NBA, goal setting, Picklogic

It seems like the NBA season has just started, but we're already nearly two full months into it. PickLogic's performance over the past 50 days has been pretty much what we expected: a 15-11 win-loss record, and - more importantly - a 6.98% positive increase.

But PickLogic's true effectiveness is always measured in the same way: by how well we avoid long losing streaks. (If you haven't noticed by now, the whole system is based on that specific element. Avoid long losing streaks, and the value of our clients' portfolios continues to move ahead steadily.)

How have we done through the first part of the NBA season? Two 3-game losing streaks, one 2-game losing streak...and that's it. (And we've thrown in two 5-game winning streaks, for good measure.)

(So...in other words...pretty good. Hence the nearly 7% gain in less than two months. And our 2009 goal was to be over 30%, and - at +33.4% so far and just 10 days to go - that looks like a safe bet as well!)

Accordingly, we want to thank you all for your continued patronage; especially our new members (PickLogic.com has gained more new members in the past two months than we had in the first 10 months of the year combined). Please don't hesitate to let us know what you like (or don't like) about PickLogic, and how/if we can improve it in any way. You might be surprised to see how quickly you get a response if you send it to support@picklogic.com; at least one of our Customer Service representatives is nearly always on call.

We'll wrap this post by giving you all of the picks that "qualify" for Monday's games; note that - as usual - only one made the grade as the official selection. (And that we expect to go 3-1 or 2-2 with these selections.)

Monday's Qualifying Picks:

- Milwaukee/Indiana, UNDER the total of 202.5
- Utah/Orlando, UNDER the total of 204
- Sacramento/Chicago, UNDER the total of 200.5
- LA Clippers/San Antonio, OVER the total of 193 (*this is the pick*)

Thanks again, and have a great holiday season and a happy new year.

Labels: 2009 NBA, basketball picks, NBA, over/under, Picklogic

This has been a very good month of November for PickLogic so far: for starters, PickLogic has seen record numbers in both paid subscribers and interested users going through their free trial. (PickLogic is up nearly 30% for the year; even the skeptics have to admit that it just works!)

After a baseball season that saw a nearly 19% increase in our clients' portfolios, we're quite pleased to have rewarded everyone's continued faith with a very nice start to the 2009-2010 basketball campaign.

Tonight, we won our 5th game in a row to put our early-season record at 6-3, returning a healthy 2.99% gain in the half-completed calendar month.

PickLogic generally shoots for a 2-4% gain each month, so we're right on target. Though we don't expect to win 5 in a row very often, just as we don't expect to lose 5 in a row - the PickLogic system is built specifically to avoid long streaks (though we've certainly seen longer winning streaks than losing streaks).

But as long as we can continue to avoid long periods of losing, we won't complain (and hopefully, you won't either).

As a parting note, PickLogic is about to make a pick for Wednesday, and we thought we'd show you the four selections that "qualified" for a pick (as we do from time to time)...of course, only one made the grade as the pick for the day:

- New York at Indiana, UNDER the total of 215
- LA Clippers at Memphis, UNDER the total of 200
- Houston at Minnesota, UNDER the total of 200
- Detroit at Portland, OVER the total of 178 (this is the pick!)

Typically, PickLogic will go 2-2 or 3-1 when we have four selections; it's doubtful that we'll go 0-4 or 4-0, or even 1-3. Feel free to play along at home!

Thanks again for making November such a great month for PickLogic; we'll do our best to continue to reward your loyalty!

PickLogic.com

Labels: basketball picks, Picklogic